Nine Weeks of Inventory

Back in 2009, the Valley had about 38 weeks of inventory. That's more than nine months of inventory waiting on the market. 2008-2011 was similar. The average asking price was around $290,000, and only a couple dozen homes were going under contract at a time. That’s what a buyer’s market looks like.

Now we are on the other end of that supply curve. We have only about nine weeks of inventory, the average asking price is up near $562,000, and pendings are in the low 60s. Prices have nearly doubled since 2009, demand has more than doubled, and the supply of homes is a fraction of what it used to be. Nine weeks is roughly two months of inventory. A balanced market is closer to five or six. So this is a seller’s market, no matter what you may have heard.

This is great if you are a seller. But it isn't 2021. You can't just stick a sign in the yard and wait for ten offers. Priced right and in good shape, your home will move and it won't sit for months. Even if it’s a little high it will sit. Buyers out here are paying very close attention to the prices and in this market not only will they not make an offer, they won’t even look at it if they feel the price is too high.

If you're buying, two months of inventory means you don't get to take your time. The entry-level and family homes, the places with a shop or some land, go first. The good news is the Valley still has room to build. We've got buildable land and simpler permitting, so new construction keeps adding options that Anchorage buyers just can't find. In fact as of today, new construction is 20% of our total inventory.

Anchorage is way tighter than we are with only 4 weeks of inventory and almost no flat land left to build on. When a city runs out of homes and runs out of land, that demand oozes out to the Valley. The Valley has been Anchorage's release valve for years, and we've built more than half the new homes in the state to prove it.

At one time it was the affordability gap that drew people out here. Now it’s the fact that you can actually own some land for a garden or privacy. We win on land, new construction, and elbow room. Just keep an eye on Anchorage. The longer they stay starved for inventory, the more of it lands on us. Even though Anchorage has actually had a slight drop in population, the people are still looking at the valley. I talked to one today who said that the 45 minute to 1 hour commute was worth it to live in a more desirable place.

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