Market Memo
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Fewer listings, same buyers. And Wasilla and Palmer prices are up $24,000 on last year.

New listings fell from 34 to 25 as winter sets in, but pendings held at 31 and a Palmer home sold over list in a single day. Here is what that means heading into the cold months.

Watch This Week's Memo

Straight from Marty, camera in hand

Everything below is pulled straight from this week's numbers and this week's tip.

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This Week by the Numbers

November 8, 2026
New Listings
25
Homes listed
Average List Price$469,000
Pendings
31
Under contract
Average Pending Price$449,000
Closed
25
Sales recorded
Average Close PriceUp this week
Active Inventory
562
On the market
By Late Friday556

Figures cover the week of November 8, 2026.

Week Over Week

Mat-Su Valley, prior week against this week
Mat-Su Valley, week over week
Metric Prior Week This Week Change
New Listings 34 25 Down 9
Average List Price $498,000 $469,000 Down $29,000
Pendings 32 31 Down 1
Closed 29 25 Down 4
Active Inventory 574 562 Down 12

New listings fell by about a quarter in one week. That is November doing what November does. Sellers who do not have to move usually wait for spring. The number that matters is pendings, and pendings barely moved. The buyers did not leave with the listings.

Prices Are Up in Wasilla and Palmer

Wasilla and Palmer, year to date
$482K
Average sale price this year. Last year it was $458,000.

That is $24,000 more for the average house, roughly 5 percent, on 1,167 sales. Sales are running a little under last year, but not by much.

Borough wide the picture is the same or better. Sales are actually up a little from this point last year, and the average price has climbed to $454,000. Days on market is running about the same.

2025 average, Wasilla and Palmer $458,000
2026 average, Wasilla and Palmer $482,000

Year to date figures as Marty reported them in this week's video.

Sales That Stood Out

Three closings worth knowing about, plus the borough benchmark
Vistaridge CirclePalmer, 3 bed, over list in one day
$1M+
Hatcher Pass Village3 bed, listed at $725K, our own closing Nov 4
$675K
Lone Cub DriveWasilla, listed at $360K, zero days on market
$370K
Borough Median34 residential closings, week of Nov 2
$423K

Bars are scaled to sale price. Price it right and it moves. Price it high and buyers will negotiate, or wait you out.

Rates and the Winter Outlook

What is moving, and what might
Week before7.24%
Freddie Mac's 30 year fixed rate, the week before this memo.
As of Nov 57.18%
The third week in a row of small drops. Not dramatic. The direction is worth watching.

A warm winter is not an easy winter

NOAA is calling for a strong El Nino, maybe one of the strongest on record. Its October 15 outlook leans warmer than normal for parts of mainland Alaska and drier for most of it. That is not a promise. A warmer winter here can mean more freeze and thaw, and more ice. One forecast Marty saw has it warm all the way through January, then colder than normal in February.

What It Means

Read this part twice if you are moving this winter
If you are selling

Price it right and keep the heat on

The Vistaridge home went over list in one day. The Hatcher Pass home listed at $725,000 and closed at $675,000. Price right and homes still move. Price high and you may sit for a while, and buyers are going to negotiate.

Keep the driveway plowed, the walks sanded, and the heat on. A buyer walking in from a cold day does not think highly of a cold house.

If you are buying

Winter shows you how a house really works

Fewer new listings means less to pick through, but pendings held at 31. Other buyers are still writing offers.

Use the cold. Look at the ice dams, the driveway, the windows and the window sills. See how warm the house stays and what it costs to heat. You will know what you are getting.

If a home is priced right, it sells. If it's priced high, expect to negotiate.
Marty Van DiestValley Market Real Estate

Tip of the Week

Three things to check before the deep cold

Wet, heavy snow, big winds, and maybe a freeze and thaw winter. Here is what Marty is watching for, at your house and at his own office.

01

Watch the snow load

Wet, heavy snow adds up on a roof very quickly. Clear it off before it gets too heavy, and after a big wind, check your roofing and siding and fix anything before it leaks. Tie down whatever can blow away.

02

Plug in the heat tape

If you have heat tape in your crawl space, make sure it is plugged in before winter hits. A frozen pipe can cause a lot of damage. If a house is sitting empty, have someone check on it, or better, house sit it.

03

Read your eaves

Ice dams and icicles along the eaves usually mean heat is getting out of the house. It is worth fixing, and if you are buying, it tells you something about the house you are looking at.

Timing Before winter hits. A frozen pipe will not wait for spring.

I actually have to watch for that right here at my office. I need to fix some of it. It's worth fixing.

Marty Van Diest

Thinking about buying or selling this winter?

Pick anyone on the Valley Market team at valleymarket.com and get a straight answer on where your house stands, cold weather and all. No pitch, no pressure.

“We care about our clients long term. We will help you, not sell you.”