Good Deals In The Valley January 9th, 2010

Categories: For Buyers

I just got done showing homes to some first time home buyers. We saw some pretty nice deals. I was surprised at some of the nice houses out there in the lower price ranges. Here are some of the homes we turned down.

We saw a pretty ranch style home with three beds, 2 baths and a 2 car garage on 4 acres set up for horses. This house appeared to be well built by a reputable bulder and in good shape. It was a 5 star home with heat exchangers and everything.

There was a 2200 square foot home that could easily be used as a duplex. It was on a commercial lot and although it needed a little TLC it looked good for only $134,000

A two story cedar sided home tucked away on a quiet lot with a two car garage. It was in good condtion, 1600 square feet, 3 bed 2 baths and a 2 car garage for only $175,000.

These are the ones we turned down…you should see the one they are intereseted in. But I’m keeping that one quiet.

Take a look at these houses. There are some great ones here:

Check out some other listings:
$199,900 7857 W Arlie
$200,000 13901 E Moyon Ruelle
5680 Rutan
$300,000 15600 Secretariat

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437 S Gulkana Street January 5th, 2010

Categories: For Buyers, My Listings

437 S. Gulkana Street
$200,000

This home is absolutely one-of-a-kind! You really won’t believe it until you see it. The home was built in 1950 and hasn’t changed much since. An antique stove sits in the kitchen next to a modern refrigerator, an edition 1960’s United States map is hung in the hallway, and the small pantry still holds delicious preserves.

Location, location, location! This home sits on a quaint, tree-lined street on the edge of Palmer. It’s conveniently located within walking distance to parks, tennis courts, shopping, schools, post office, and church. You really don’t even need a car if you live here.

4 bedrooms and 2 baths fit snugly into 2400 sqft of space alongside a 2 car garage. The daylight basement doubles as a separate apartment, though the borough has it as a single-family home. The current owner is the original builder and plans to leave almost all the furniture in the home, antiques or not.

Call Marty today at (907) 232-7900 to schedule a showing or for more information. Don’t pass up this opportunity to own this beautiful, well cared-for piece of Palmer history!

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Mat-Su Real Estate Statistics for 2009 December 31st, 2009

Categories: For Buyers

Happy New Year, one day early.

I thought I would end the year with a look at the statistics. Looking back from this year all the way to 2005 we can see that the volume and the price have both been dropping since 2006. But they have not been dropping at the same rate.

We can see that median prices have dropped only about 1 1/2% since 2006 while the total volume of sales has dropped by 32%.

Year	Total Sales	Average Price	Median Price	DOM
2005	1674	$203,279	$192,500	67
2006	1678	$216,520	$206,000	72
2007	1495	$221,547	$209,000	79
2008	1213	$221,344	$205,500	89
2009	1145	$212,203	$203,000	94

The obvious question is why do prices drop so much slower than the sales volume? That is because people don’t want to lose money on their houses unless they absolutely have to.

So there is resistance to the lower prices and those prices will likely not drop quickly unless we have massive job losses caused by a crash in our oil based economy.

Future Predictions

It’s easy to look back to see what prices have done, but what are they going to do in the future is the question. I like this article that basically says the only way to make sure you are not wrong about future housing prices is to keep silent. Edward Glaeser the author of the article and a Harvard Economics professor used both technical and fundamental analysis to make a few general predictions. But one of the comments at the end brings up a more important issue in my mind…that is affordability. Buyers generally commit if they think the house will be affordable.

So what would be an affordable price for buyers in the Mat-Su Valley? We have to start somewhere and the old FHA ratios are a good place to start. When I began real estate in 1991 the ratio was 29/39. This means that the total house payment should be less than 29% of a persons total gross monthly income and the total house payment plus all the other debt payments should be less than 39% of the total gross monthly income.

I‘m going to focus on the 29% ratio since I am interested in houses not in all the other things we might buy on credit. The median household income of Mat-Su residents as of 2008 was $72,966. Divide that number by 12 months, ($6080) and multiply that by 29% and you get $1,763.

Now plug the median price of $203,000 into a mortgage calculator, assume $2,800 a year for taxes and $1000 a year for insurance and you will come up with a monthly mortgage payment of $1,406.42 based on a 5%, 30 year fixed mortgage.

So….based on that numerical mumbo-jumbo I would say that house prices are currently “affordable” in the Mat-Su Borough.

Anytime I start throwing numbers around Grace breaks into french, “Les hommes – ils aiment les chiffres”. The men, they love the numbers.

Actually, the future of real estate prices is based on something a lot more esoteric than “les chiffres”. It is based almost entirely on emotions and feelings. How do people feel about the future of the economy and the security of their income in Alaska. If they are fearful of the economy they will not push that 29% ratio at all and will stay significantly under it.

Most buyers that I talk to today are very careful. I would say that they aren’t going to want to approach the 29% ratio which will keep prices from going up much…but since they are by FHA’s definition, “affordable” now, I don’t think they will drop much either.

Anytime you start going into these scenarios all the unknowns start rearing their ugly heads. What will the national economy do? What will oil do? Will they shut down the pipeline? Will they actually start getting serious about a gas line? I could go on and on with questions and any one of the answers could make all my numbers worth no more than trash…

So here we come 2010! We are going to ride this bull or this bear with all our heart and soul.

Face Book
Deals Of The Week List
Foreclosure List
Motivated Sellers list.

Based on information from AK MLS, Inc. for the period Dec 1-7, 2009 but not compiled or published by AK MLS, Inc. Data maintained by AK MLS, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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Merry Christmas, One Day Late December 26th, 2009

Categories: For Buyers

We have been enjoying having all four of our children home over Christmas. Between all the family activitiies and church activities we have been very busy.

But I’m not completely on vacation...I’m still showing houses so give me a call if you want to see one during this holiday season.

If you would like to enjoy a sliding adventure on Lazy Mountain with 10 Van Diest cousins check out this video. This was in the subdued light of Dec 24.

Or for something a little more serene, you can attend a candlelight service with us at Lazy Mountain Bible Church.

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Deals Of The Week Dec 23, 2009 December 23rd, 2009

Categories: For Buyers

Just finished the deals of the week. If you did not get the links just sign up here and I will send them to you.

I think everyone should take a good hard look at new construction. Especially the 5 star plus homes. You will get the $7,500 energy rebate, lower maintenance costs, and lower utility bills over the long run. I chose some of the best but there are 126 of them, many of which are just foundations. Let me know if you would like to check out new construction.

7 of 21 new listings. http://www.flexmls.com/link.html?oy7vp4if41e,2,1

2 of 22 price reduced

11 of 126 new construction

23 of 23 foreclosures

32 of 32 Short Sales

Please call if you have any questions about any of these houses.

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