Wasilla Real Estate News, Valley Market Real Estate

Wasilla Real Estate Statistics In The News Again December 12th, 2007

Categories: Wasilla Real Estate News

If Statistics Make Your Eyes Cross
Go To The Last Paragraph.

I hate to dwell on statistics, but feel I must correct another set of skewed stats in the news recently.  Although I don’t have time to watch TV, I do have a google alert set up to tell me when the term “Wasilla Real Estate” hits the internet.

This piece apparently aired yesterday on KTUU.  It talked specifically about the two foreclosures already mentioned in a previous Anchorage Daily News article.  I discussed that article here.  It’s interesting to see how they used some of the same wrong statistics.  I don’t know if they just copied the other reporters numbers are had the same wrong source, but they were both wrong in the same way.

I demonstrated how the averages for Palmer were wrong in yesterdays post.  I suspect that the Wasilla numbers were skewed for similar reasons. 

KTUU’s piece however added one additional piece of incorrect information.  They said that the price drops were for one acre lots.  So they said that one acre lots in Palmer dropped from $100,000 to $60,000 and Wasilla one acre lots dropped from $75,000 to $55,000. This is not even close to reality. 

To get the same statistics for Palmer, you have search “Palmer” on the MLS which by some glitch includes all vacant land from Cottonwood Shores on Bogard Road, to Chickaloon, to the Knik Glacier.  It would take you 40 minutes to drive from Chickaloon or the end of Knik River Road to Palmer.  In addition it includes all vacant land.  That means parcels over 100 hundred acres that sold for more than two million dollars are included in this average.

If you narrow it down to the immediate Palmer and Wasilla areas by using a borough map search, you will find something completely different.  Let’s narrow it down to about one acre lots.  The Borough has an ordinance that says you need at least 40,000 square feet of usable land to install your own well and septic system so we will search from 40,000 square feet to 50,000 square feet.

In the Wasilla area in 2006 there were 56 lots that sold for an average price of $53,854.  In 2007 so far there have been 41 lot sales for an average price of $44,428.

In Palmer there were only 4 lot sales in 2006 that averaged $49,000.  In 2007 there have been 11 lot sales averaging $44,173.  In the actual Palmer map area, there are just not very many one acre lot sales.  There are more than 70 on the market in Palmer right now so you can see that buyers are obviously balking at the prices.

It is true that the average price for vacant land has fallen.  But prices for one acre lots never have averaged $100,000 in Palmer or $75,000 in Wasilla.  In fact prices are much lower than that.  You can easily find nice 5 acre lots in Wasilla the $100,000 average price quoted for Palmer lots.  Here are some of the best lots for sale in Wasilla.  Give me a call…I’ll show them to you. My cell number is 907 232–7900

Written by Marty Van Diest 2 Comments »

Wasilla Deals Of The Week 12-11-2007 December 11th, 2007

Categories: Deals of the Week

There haven’t been very many new listings to sort through lately.  But of the four deals mentioned in the last two weeks, two have already sold.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the others sold soon.

I picked three this week. 

• 5173 S Emerald Way, $168,500, Listed by Elizabeth MacMullen at RE/MAX of Wasilla.  This is a foreclosure on a lake in the Big Lake area.  When you throw in the almost 2 acres of land and detached shop, it’s hard to beat.
• 2020 S Rue de la Paix, $189,000, Listed by Cheryl Campbell at Prudential Jack White Vista.  Three bedroom two bath in immaculate condition.  That’s only $129 per square foot, not bad for a newer ranch.
• 2751 W Stonebridge Drive, $285,000, Listed by Marty Van Diest at RE/MAX of Wasilla. I’m serious about this one.  If you are in the market for a house n this price range this one is hard to beat.  It’s under construction now and will be complete about the end of February.  1900 sq ft  ranch with LOTS of upgrades. 

Remember the rules for deals of the week:

• 1. Just because I say its a deal doesn’t mean that you should buy it “sight unseen”.  I am only looking at the MLS.  In most cases I am not physically previewing these properties.
• 2. To qualify for DOTW, within the past week the property must have either been newly listed, come back on the market, or had the price lowered.  This is based on the assumption that if a property was truly a “deal” it would not last more than a week on the market. 

Written by Marty Van Diest 2 Comments »

Wasilla Real Estate News, Monday Market Memo 12/3-12/10/2007 December 10th, 2007

Categories: Monday Market Memo

These statistics are for the whole Mat-Su Borough.  The vast majority of real estate transactions are in the Palmer and Wasilla areas, but this week there is one sale of remote property in the mix.

For the third week in a row, we have sold and pended more homes than were listed.  The total listings are now down to 761 which is the lowest listing count in 6 months.  I do expect listings to increase in January-May, we will have to see if the sales can keep up with the surge of new listings

The average price for new listings this week demonstrates one of the problems with using averages in statistics. If you have one house price that far exceeds the others, it skews them all. 

This is the house that caused them all to tilt upward.

• $2,700,000 for a 3,000 square foot home on 110 acres of land.  Listed by Jennifer Zimmerman of Northern Trust Realty, and Jeff Goyette of Peak Realty LLC.  This is, by almost $1,000,000, the most expensive piece of residential property in the Valley.  As you might imagine, it’s pretty spectacular.  If you can qualify for this price and would like to take a look, give me a call. My cell phone number is 907 232–7900 

If we take that house out of the mix, the other 14 new listings average $267,767. 

The article in the Anchorage Daily News last week about valley real estate used some average prices that do not give a true reading of the real estate picture.  The article talked about how the average price for vacant land dropped 40 percent in Palmer. 

While the average prices of the parcels sold certainly did drop by that amount, the value for vacant land has not dropped by nearly that amount.  The fact is, only 54 parcels sold in Palmer during 2006 and one of the parcels sold for more than two million dollars.  That significantly increased the average price for 2006 to $104, 493.  We all know that the average price for a vacant lot is much lower than that.

This year  80 parcels were sold with the highest price reaching almost $400,000.  The average price for these 80 properties was $62,399.  You can see where the ADN got the lower average prices.  But this doesn’t mean the the value for individual properties has decreased at all.

In fact, I have had a hard time proving that prices are decreasing.  The only way to prove this is to show matched pairs.  A property needs to have been purchased in the last few years and then sold again for less than it was purchased for to prove price reductions.  So far, the vast majority of the properties sold this year went for more than the price for which they were purchased. That certainly doesn’t prove that prices are decreasing. 

Written by Marty Van Diest 1 Comment »

Big Foreclosures In Wasilla December 7th, 2007

Categories: Wasilla Real Estate News

Two large projects are hitting the foreclosure auction block in the next couple weeks. 

They are the Willow Heights condos and the Gemstone Estates Subdivision.  I’m not sure how the condos are going to be sold, but the subdivision lots are going to be offered individually.

These were both ill advised projects from the start.  Condos were never a great idea in the Mat-Su Valley.  Most people move out to the valley to find more room.  They don’t dream of moving to the Mat-Su Valley to live in a condo.  If you are on a lake or have some other fantastic location, you can sell condos…but without some extra perk…good luck!

The subdivision didn’t sell because the prices were too high.  I think it is likely the initial cost of the land drove up the cost of the project so that the developer was trying to sell 1/2 acre lots for $48,000.  That was a no-go because you could buy nice one acre lots all over the valley for less. Here are some great lots, most of them are under $48,000. 

From what I can gather, the lots will be offered at the sale next Tuesday in Anchorage.  They will be offered individually for a minimum bid of $35,000 each.  If they don’t sell individually they may be offered in bulk.  Of course the bank can change the terms on a whim, so make sure you know the terms if you are going to bid.

At $35,000, I can see some builders and perhaps individual buyers picking up some of these lots.  Assuming that the community water system is operational, this is a good location for some spec houses. 

Gemstone is located just off of Seldon Road near Teeland Middle School and next to Cornerstone Christian School.  It’s a great central location for a development…at the right price.

The Anchorage Daily News had a story on these properties today. I have some differences with the story in the way the average price reductions are presented, but I agree completely with the quote from Jerry Moses…”don’t do stupid things”.  You can read Zaz Hollander’s piece here.

There is some information on National Bank of Anchorage’s website here.

Written by Marty Van Diest 2 Comments »

Palmer Real Estate, Midtown Estates. December 6th, 2007

Categories: For Buyers

One of the reasons so many like Midtown Estates is its proximity to the local schools. Click on the map to the left and you will see that the Colony High School and Colony Middle School border Midtown on the North. 

In fact, at the end of Broadway is a gate through a fence to the back of the school grounds.  Many of the people who live there just walk to school.  For a rural area like the Mat-Su Valley, that is a rare luxury.

In addition, Pioneer Peak Elementary is on Trunk Road just West of Midtown.  The new realignment of Trunk Road is going to go between Midtown Estates and Pioneer Peak Elementary School, who knows, maybe they will provide a foot bridge across the road.  That would be a good thing for the people of Midtown to lobby.

I happen to have a listing at 2190 Broadway.  If you are looking for a place close to the schools click here

More on Midtown: Midtown Estates, Palmer Alaska.

Written by Marty Van Diest 1 Comment »